That is what Deakin University Geelong senior lecturer in politics Geoff Robinson believes.

Dr Robinson said Member for Mallee Andrew Broad had largely won back the votes he lost to a Liberal candidate in 2013.

The Nationals and Liberals have a deal not to run against each other in a seat if there is a Coalition incumbent.

In 2016, Mr Broad did not face an opponent from a major conservative party.

“Those Liberal voters have mainly gone back to the Nationals,” Dr Robinson said.

Dr Robinson said the lack of Palmer United or Family First candidates in Mallee this year also helped the Greens, Rise Up Australia and Citizens Electoral Council to positive swings.

Fundamentalist Christian, anti-Islam party Rise Up Australia did better, at more than five per cent, than Dr Robinson expected.

“I think it was an alternative name on the ballot and voters might not have known much about them,” he said.

“Rise Up has a lot of followers from Christian migrants from the Middle East, and I don’t think there are many Assyrian Christians in Mallee.”

Wannon results have indicated a small one per cent swing against incumbent Dan Tehan.

Dr Robinson said it appeared that Mr Tehan’s support had not changed significantly since his promotion to Minister for Veterans Affairs and Defence Materiel.

“Mr Tehan has obviously done enough to keep in touch with his electorate,” Dr Robinson said.

Mr Tehan faced fewer minor party opponents this year and this helped Labor, the Greens and Warrnambool-based independent Dr Michael McCluskey.

On the national level, Dr Robinson believed that postal votes, preferences, and recounts would deliver a close victory to the Coalition.

However, Dr Robinson said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had been damaged by the closeness of the result and mistakes during the campaign.

“It has emboldened Mr Turnbull’s critics from the right wing of the party,” Dr Robinson said.

“It is perhaps going to cause more centrist elements of the party to have doubts about his political skills and his overall sense of judgement.

“His election night speech has copped a lot of criticism.”