With soybeans accounting for 35 per cent of the global edible oils market, a drop in demand for soymeal in the Chinese hog industry and, therefore soybeans, will be material in global oilseed markets.

Before 2018, China had a 700 million head pig herd. To support this growing population, China's soybean imports more than doubled in the decade to 2017, by which time imports had reached 94 million tonnes - more than 60 per cent of the global soybean trade.

In 2018, China's soybean imports fell to 86 million as China's 25 per cent tariff on US soybeans diverted trade flows and the Chinese government actively sought ways to reduce the reliance of their livestock industries on soymeal.

As we enter the second-half of 2019, the Chinese tariff is still in place, and the 2019 Brazilian soybean crop is forecast to reach new heights. At the same time, US soybean stocks remain at a record highs and intentions to reduce plantings have been tempered by additional farm support payments and the switching to soybeans, because corn acres haven't been able to be planted during the wet US spring.

Collectively, this means the global oilseed complex is set to continue to be burdened by a depressed soybean market. But the burdens do not end there. Palm oil, which accounts for another 35 per cent of the global edible oils market, has its own share of bearish dynamics. And there are contributing burdens in the canola market too.

It is on top these bearish factors that the impact of ASF is being played out. ASF is spreading across China, so a decline of 25 to 35 per cent in pork production is expected this year. The volume of hog feed required is expected to drop by 30 per cent as a result of the liquidation of inventory, resulting in a further four million tonne drop in Chinese demand for imported soybeans. Unconfirmed news that the spread is wider and that sow slaughter rates are higher than official reports, deliver the prospect of further declines in soybean imports.

A candle of hope is harvest volumes for European rapeseed (non-GM canola) for 2019-20 are forecast to be below 20 million tonnes for the first time in seven years. This - together with Australia's low 2018-19 production - explains the AU80/tonne, and above, typical spread between GM and non-GM canola currently in the market.

A glimmer of upside for Australian canola producers in an otherwise burdened global market.