FARMERS in eastern Australia have received little joy in the latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook.
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The BoM spring outlook makes grim reading, with a strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event swinging the odds firmly in favour of below average rainfall for spring across virtually all of mainland Australia.
BoM climatologist Andrew Watkins said the IOD positive had gone above +1 for the first time since 2015, meaning the odds of above average rainfall for spring were now well below average.
"The event is stronger than normal with a lot of cold water around Indonesia, which means the odds of exceeding average rainfall are much lower," Dr Watkins said.
It will mean drought-stricken farmers in Queensland, northern and central NSW and far eastern Victoria are likely to have to wait until summer for meaningful relief from the dry.
Areas with winter dominant rainfall that are currently dry, such as far north-western Victoria and the South Australian Mallee, are also looking at a prolonged dry.
In terms of rainfall distribution, Dr Watkins said October was the most likely have below average rainfall, with the odds in September, while still favouring drier than average, slightly better for those looking for rain.
Across the nation, Dr Watkins said the 2019 winter was likely to end up being one of the top five driest and top 10 hottest on record.
The small consolation in the forecast, released by the BoM today, is that unlike an El Nino weather event, which can impact climate until March or April the following year, an IOD event is virtually certain to break down in December.
Dr Watkins said this was due to the south-east Asian monsoon, which acts as a giant sea breeze.
This means that summer dominant rainfall will enter the period with neutral conditions and no constraint on achieving average rainfall.
National grain and livestock analysts are keeping a close eye on the prospects for rainfall over areas with reasonable crop prospects, such as Western Australia, Victoria and the NSW Riverina.
With moisture running out in the Riverina and the odds swinging to a very high chance of below average spring rainfall, crop forecasters are likely to start cutting Riverina production.
Gregor Heard
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
Gregor Heard is ACM's national grains industry reporter, based in Horsham, Victoria. He has a wealth of knowledge surrounding the cropping sector through his 15 years in the role. Prior to that he was with the Fairfax network as a reporter with Stock & Land. Some of the major issues he has reported on during his time with the company include the deregulation of the export wheat market, the introduction of genetically modified crops and the fight to protect growers better from grain trader insolvencies. Still involved with the family farm he is passionate about rural Australia and its people and hopes to use his role to act as an advocate for those involved in the grain sector.
