GLOBAL STOCK ESTIMATES RISING
The September USDA Report saw global wheat production estimates lifted by 4.46 million tonnes compared to the August report. Australia's production was raised by 2.5mt, and 2mt was added to Canada's estimate, both on the back of respective government official forecasts.
Global wheat stock estimates are up 2.58mt. China holds 51 per cent of total stocks, and India holds 10pc. However, most of the changes this month reflect revisions for countries outside of China and India. Stocks outside of China have lifted by 1.58mt, with 400,000t of that increase being accounted for by India. Basically, stocks held by the major exporters have increased in this month's updated balance sheet, and in response prices eased coming out of the report, despite strong gains for soybeans and a modest lift for corn.
China is also likely to import as much as 7mt of wheat this marketing year based on the pace of sales to date. That will lift their imports to the highest levels since 1995/96. Although export volumes from the US were not revised this month, if there are further sales to China there may be a revision in future reports.
At this stage US wheat stocks are set to decline by 3.22mt to 25.19mt. A reduction in US wheat stocks is one of the factors that will be needed to underpin CBOT wheat futures, and global wheat prices. The other area of focus is the Black Sea, where the USDA is still factoring in a crop of 78mt for Russia. Local forecasters are already back up to 83mt. If that number is transferred into the USDA global balance sheet it will put further upward pressure on global stocks and downward pressure on wheat prices.