THE Wimmera’s sheep producers are expected to buck the predicted decrease in wool production that has been forecast.
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The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee predicted the nation’s wool production would be down by 10.8 per cent from last year. It also predicted that Victoria’s production would decrease by 3.7 per cent.
Committee chairman Russell Pattinson said the fall reflected an expected reduction in both the number of sheep shorn and the average annual wool cut per head.
However, despite dry conditions, limited feed available and low production predicted, the Wimmera’s sheep producers are expecting a stable season.
Kurra-Wirra stud advisor and former The Mountain Dam stud master Tom Silcock, of Telangatuk East, said wool had some tough competition from other industries.
“Especially with your prime lamb industry and cattle being so strong, but you’re not seeing that swing in market signals,” he said.
“Instead of seeing an increase in wool production in western Victoria, we’re seeing a stable production. The drought that has affected other parts of the country is having a big impact.
“The further north you go in the Wimmera, the more people are being affected. We’re lucky that western Victoria has good quantities of feed production going into the summer.”
Mr Silcock said he had attended many industry meetings over recent months.
“There have been a lot of heartache stories of people de-stocking to try and survive and look after the core breeding flock; that’s really having a big impact on production,” he said.
Kurra-Wirra stud farm manager Anthony Close, of Culla, said he expected a “pretty good” production year for farmers south of Horsham.
“But north of Horsham, where the crops haven’t got up, it will hard. Most of the time you would be backing 10 or 15 per cent in sheep, compared to cropping which would be 100 per cent,” he said.
“Production will be backing down slightly in the northern parts of the Wimmera and in the Southern Mallee.”
Wimmera Victorian Farmers Federation livestock councillor Michael Craig, of Harrow, runs a mixed livestock and cropping enterprise. Mr Craig also predicted wool production would be steady this year.
“I think in some areas it will actually increase. Market signals work well to increase supply, but on the other hand this northern drought is massive and will definitely decrease total production, while at the same time increase the proportion of fine wool,” he said.
“Sheep meat prices are still very strong, so the incentive for some producers will be to continue with a meat focus. So I don’t think there will be a whole sale shift by producers to wool.
“In our business we will actually increase our total wool production as we have increased our running capacity and wethers are the perfect tool in our management system.”
VFF president David Jochinke, of Murra Warra, said farmers’ main concerns revolved around feeding costs.
“Anyone who doesn't have homegrown feed is going to find it very expensive. Getting a balance right between what they’ve got themselves and what they need to buy in for supplementary feed will determine how many head they bring through,” he said.
“Feed prices are still going to remain high for the remainder of this season and going into the next. Traditionally the amount of mixed farming that we have in the Wimmera is probably on the lower end to what we’ve seen in the past.
“With wool, we’ve seen it coming off the highs of the past few months and slipping back a touch. That just demonstrates how exposed we are to the Chinese market. When the market is strong it does give us that opportunity to capitalise on that production.
“We’ve seen what was once a prominent merino flock is now becoming more meat based. Not every merino sheep produces that good quality wool that was selling for those high prices.”
Mr Jochinke said it had become common for Wimmera farmers to purchase sheep from drought affected New South Wales.
“Those opportunities are well over. Unless we see another opportunity to purchase modestly priced livestock to bring into the Wimmera, then we won’t see that same influx,” he said.
VFF Livestock Group president Leonard Vallance, of Ouyen, said there had been more of a swing into sheep due to the difficult cropping season.
“People are bringing sheep into graze the failed crops. In the Wimmera and Mallee, I actually expect the wool production to increase slightly. It certainly won’t be decreasing; we’re not following the national trend at the moment,” he said.
“The number of failed crops will make good fodder for the summer and autumn. Whether they decide to keep those sheep or cash them in back into cropping, who would know.”
Mr Vallance said the biggest problem facing sheep producers was a lack of available shearers.
