Victorian Farmers Federation president David Jochinke, of Murra Warra, said it was still too early to know whether this year would definitely be an improvement from the last.

“We look at the long-term averages, but it all comes down to when it rains and how much rain we get that really drives how much yield is received,” he said.

“Most farmers have a fairly good handle on where they are at, but only when they come back from holidays will they start to get back into routine. I think people are very happy to see the end of 2018, but when they start 2019 they will be cautiously optimistic.”

His comments come after Rural Bank’s Ag Answers released its Australian Agriculture Outlook 2019 report.

The report predicted an increase in lamb and mutton prices this year. However due to high slaughter rates in 2018, there will be a decreased supply in early 2019 with producers looking to hold onto remaining stock.

It also predicted that a return to average rainfall conditions could see the Australian wheat crop in excess of 24 million tonnes in 2019. This would be a 50 per cent increase on the 2018 season.

Related: Grain receival sites pleased with harvest results

Mr Jochinke said farmers shouldn’t rely on predictions, but said they were a good starting point.

“I’m always so cautious when predictions are made so early on in the season,” he said.

“We had a substantial rain event at the end of last year that hopefully gave farmers the chance to lock in some substantial sub-soil moisture and boost their confidence, but those numbers are only forecasts and should be treated as such at this stage.”

He said there were vast differences between predicting the outcome of the cropping industry to the livestock industry.

“Production for cropping is a lot harder to predict than sheep because sheep are a longer term. Unlike grain where you can lose it so quickly to things like frost, sheep are a bit more adaptable,” he said.

“Meat prices will remain relatively strong. We did see a lot of numbers bred locally, and were also traded into the region last year. There might be opportunity to do that again this season which will help maintain some of the slaughter numbers.

“Anyone who is breeding their own sheep or who is in livestock has definitely been rewarded last season. They will be able to sell their product really well.”

Grain Producers Australia chairman Andrew Weidemann, of Rupanyup, said Wimmera grain growers were still awaiting long-rage weather predictions from the Bureau of Meteorology.

“In the last week, it has changed from being a potential El Niño (lower than average rainfall) watch in this period to a less like El Niño watch, which is a good thing,” he said.

“One of the key fundamentals for the Wimmera weather patterns is the Indian Ocean Dipole, so we’re very focused on what that might look like because it will suggest whether or not we’ll have some substantial weather fronts coming through in March and April when they are really needed.

“After a dry year like we’ve just experienced, generally we tend to get a bit more rain in the following year. We’re very lucky that we had that decent rain close to Christmas which put a bit of moisture into the profile. Everyone has been working very hard to store the moisture and maintain as much stubble as they can to pressure the moisture.”

He said Rural Bank’s predictions wouldn’t apply to every producer.

“The outlook of 50 per cent more is – for a lot of people – 50 per cent more than nothing.They can do all the reports they like, but when we’re actually looking at the rainfall, then we’ll believe it,” he said.

“Until then, it’s a complete guessing game and watching the weather patterns as they come across.

“I’ve been watching the Australian dollar closely. We’re really so dependent on the China and US discussions that our dollar is fluctuating so much. Even people who are hoping to lock in fertiliser for this season, it can fluctuate $15 a tonne just off the drop in the dollar.”

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