Victoria is getting less rain from traditional weather patterns

The Bureau of Meteorology Climate Research Group's Acacia Pepler has told an Agriculture Victoria webinar the latest research showed rainfall had reduced by 16 per cent, between 1979 and 2015.

The research, part of the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative, has been carried out by the BoM, CSIRO and Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning.

"We are trying to understand what's going on with changes in Victoria's rainfall," Ms Pepler said.

"It will be no surprise to anyone who lives in Victoria, and who lived through the Millenium drought, there has been a general decline in cool season rainfall, over the last few decades.

"There hasn't been much change in rainfall during November to March, over the last century - with the exception of the 2010-11 La Nina - but there has been a decline in the rainfall in the cooler months of the year."

The three most significant types of weather that influenced Victoria, were cyclones, or low-pressure systems, cold fronts and summer storms.

Ms Pepler said the study, which covered the time-frame between 1979-96 and 1997-2015, aimed to look at what was to discover what was causing the decline.

"Is it that we are having fewer fronts, is it that they are less likely to produce rainfall, or is it that they are producing less rainfall, when it does rain?"

"The main takeaway is that we have had a really large decline in lows and frontal produced rainfall.

"There has been no change in the number of fronts overall, it's just that we are having more dry lows and fronts, than wet fronts."

Agriculture Victoria seasonal risk agronomist Dale Grey said the changing weather patterns were influencing cropping practices, as direct drilling, stubble retention and chemical weed control moved further southwards and east.

"Our seasonal break this year was fantastic, but in many years we are getting seasonal breaks that limp over the line with low rainfall events,' Mr Grey said.

"The seasonal break has not been so defined, and because of that, it is really important to get a crop into, and out of, the ground, as quickly as possible.

"The old concept of a general rain, where the whole district got 10mm is a joke, it just doesn't seem to happen, one area is getting five and one is getting 15mm."

He advised crop growers to consider planting, if it rained in March.

The changing weather patterns had also resulted in a 'huge swing" into dry sowing.

"If it hasn't rained by April, most people are dry sowing - that was once deemed incredibly risky, now it's deemed essential.

"The one thing that dry sowing does is set crops up for the highest yield potential possible, for that year.

"As soon as it rains, your crop comes out of the ground."

But he said that also brought out weeds, so crop herbicide use could be harsh.

"There are few times, even when there is a dodgy germination, plants stay alive for a long time."

Farmers were going to demand tougher crops, which would be able to cope with the conditions.

Dry sown canola would still come up in June or July, with rain, while barley was also a tough crop, which was early maturing, filled at higher temperatures and had a two degree better frost tolerance, than wheat.

Vetch was also a true multi-purpose crop, providing grazing, hay and green, or brown, manure.

Lyndon and Sharon Kubeil, Laurana, Violet Town, run 1300-1500 Merino ewes on creek country, with an average 500 millimetres of rainfall a year.

The property is stocked at 12-14 DSE/hectare.

Mr Kubeil said he bought the property in 1999, rapidly realising the need for flexibility in his operation.

"Ten years of fairly solid seasons, post 1999, made us think about risk - when you have high levels of debt, and with higher levels of debt, the higher the risk."

When the property ran out of water in 2003 and 2006, the Kubeil's turned to a desalination plant, drawing bore water from 100 meters below the surface.

"We quickly realised we needed to do something better, from a stockwater point of view," he said.

"It's been absolutely brilliant, ever since, and got us out of trouble, many, many seasons."

But he said the farm also sought to optimise moisture, when it had it.

"We soil test about every second or third year, as we wanted to address the seasonal risk issue - the thing we identified was short springs and late autumns."

Stock containment was used extensively, to minimise topsoil loss and maintain groundcover and perenniality in pastures.

"We use it every autumn, to make sure we are managing our leaf area, going into winter."

That optimised soil moisture use.

"If we can grow some reasonable amounts of winter feed, even if the season does fall short in spring, we generally have sheep in good condition, and they are a more saleable item."

Temporary electric fencing had also been a positive move, particularly in containing sheep in the corner of a paddock, where there was shade and water.

"It's been a fantastic tool for us."

Mr Kubeil told the webinar the biggest adaptation was in genetics.

"We have gone from growing up in a Merino system, where we tended to want to put more and more wool on our sheep, and they probably weren't ideal for coping, when things got tough."

Instead, the emphasis was now more on growth, fat and muscle.

"That's really built a resilient ewe, which can carry more fat and muscle, and can handle a much tougher environment."

"They scan about the same as a cross-bred ewe, about 160-170 per cent, maidens included.

"Fertility is a game changer, the ability to restock faster and join more sheep to a terminal, or maternal, sire provides more flexibility.

Laurana had also introduced earlier maturing patterns.

"We can now join at seven months, so if we had to destock, we can use those ewes to ramp up our numbers much faster than we did, in the past."

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