Ballarat flu case numbers potentially the worst this century

In 2019, which was the worst year for influenza in more than 20 years, Ballarat recorded a total of 648 cases for the entire year and to the same date had recorded just 385 - 169 fewer than the current figures.

A month ago Ballarat had recorded 338 cases of influenza and as of Tuesday it had leapt to 554.

Grampians Health chief operating officer hospitals Ben Kelly said the Ballarat Base Hospital ED respiratory zone was continuing to see high levels of flu and flu-like presentations, along with COVID and suspected-COVID cases.

"These numbers are far higher than we saw in 2020 and 2021, and are likely to continue throughout winter," he said.

But experts warned the real number of influenza cases across Ballarat is likely to be at least double the official figure, which only counts laboratory-confirmed cases and not those who simply ride out the flu at home without an official test.

"This flu season is particularly bad. We have seen a resurgence of flu since borders re-opened and lockdowns ended," said Royal Australasian College of General Practitioners Victorian chair Dr Anita Munoz.

"GPs have been seeing patients with severe symptoms that linger for weeks. And there have been significant hospitalisations of children under five, which is due to the fact that babies born during the pandemic have never been in contact with the virus and have no immunity."

Dr Munoz said the best protection against both influenza and COVID-19 was vaccination.

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"I urge people to make sure they're up to date with their COVID-19 vaccinations, and consider an influenza vaccination - which is free for all Victorians until July 10," she said.

Deakin University epidemiologist lead Professor Catherine Bennett said there was some hope that influenza cases were starting to taper off across Australia, but there was no guarantee we had reached a peak.

"Often when the flu season starts early (as this year's has done) it tapers off and when we had our vaccination forum last week they were saying at that point, Australia wide, it was looking like numbers were tapering so we might have hit a peak but there's no guarantee ... it could dip and take off again. It's still too early to tell."

"When you see the number of cases reported, you can double it to get an idea of how many new infections there really were."

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