Prices at the Naracoorte blue ribbon first-cross ewe and ewe lamb sales are likely to drop back to levels not seen for close to a decade - the last time lambs were worth less than $5 a kilogram carcase weight.
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But agents say there are likely to be opportunities to get into young ewes at very reasonable prices.
The Naracoorte Combined agents have advertised 16,000, 1.5-year-old ewes to be on offer at the Naracoorte Regional Livestock Exchange on Thursday and 33,000 ewe lambs for the following Thursday (November 16).
Last year the 1.5-year-olds topped at $426 and averaged $350, while the best of the ewe lambs made $358.
Several interstate sales have given some price indication or 2023's levels with Corowa, NSW, hitting a high of $248 and at Wycheproof, Vic, ewes sold from $160 to $204.
The blue ribbon South East sale usually eclipses these prices and PPHS Naracoorte director Richard Harvie is hopeful the best of the 1.5-year-olds may reach $230-$260 and selected pens of ewe lambs could top $200.
"Once we get into the middle and lighter run ewes, it could be $100 to $160 and the ewe lamb job - I don't know what to think - secondary types could be barely stubble finisher price of $40 to $70," he said.
"We have blokes selling their ewe lambs for less than their wether lambs."
Mr Harvie said the changeover price to move from old to young ewes was the best it had been in five or six years, even with mutton in the doldrums.
"Even with $30 for an old ewe and $110 for a good prime lamb, that gives you $140 to get into a young ewe, which might cost $150 to $200," he said.
"We also have blokes getting $170 for their top lambs so it is not costing much to go from an eight or nine-year-old into a 1.5-year-old."
Elders Naracoorte livestock manager Josh Reeves says there will be a premium for anything of a joinable weight but there will be a lot of lighter ewe lambs, which is a reflection of the season.
"It is the right time to get in, it is a good time to be putting ewes into the flock with the changeover nowhere near as much as it has been," he said.
"Joinable ewe lambs will probably make $100 to $140 and grow out types $50 to $80."
He says it was a "case by case basis" on whether buyers were holding back or seeing a chance to "tuck a few more away".
Although traders would take a hit, he said there would likely be some great opportunities to make a good margin buying ewe lambs to bring back as 1.5-year-olds.
"The same buyers are at the sale year in and year out so those breeders who have been doing for years will still have a following but it is the people who have swung into the job because things have been so good that might get hurt a bit," he said.
On Thursday morning at Edenhope, Vic, 6800, 1.5-year-olds and 4500 ewe lambs will be offered by Australian Wool Network.
Branch manager David Hanel says breeders still need replacements but the prices paid will depend on how much buyers value having "good breeders in the paddock for next year".
"At Corowa the best runs were $200-$240, whether we get to those levels I don't know," he said.
"The lamb market is holding OK if they are good lambs and while the mutton job is in a depressed state it often has a way of correcting itself."
Mr Hanel is expecting plenty of weight in lambs, going by second-cross lambs being turned off by producers in the region.
"They are the heaviest we have seen for this time of year, we had a great start. The end has not been so kind but there are still plenty of them making 48 to 52kg," he said.
